2006 Toronto Blue Jays Season Preview

There's been a lot of hype surrounding the Blue Jays ever since the team acquired B.J. Ryan and A.J. Burnett for a whole lot of money (combined $102 million, if I'm not mistaken), and many prognosticators are picking the team to seriously threaten the Red Sox and Yankees for the division. I'm very cautiously optimistic that the Jays will actually be in the running for a playoff spot. However, it comes down to avoiding injuries and having every player perform to the best of their abilities, which is definitely easier said than done. Having a great won-lost record within the AL East will be the key to victory for Toronto. A quick look at their opponents: first, the Jays proved that they could beat the Red Sox, and they'll have to do the same thing in 2006. Second, the Yankees will prove to be the huge obstacle. That batting lineup is superb, top to bottom. Finally, if the Jays can't beat Tampa Bay and Baltimore, they don't deserve to make the playoffs.

Now it's time to examine the Blue Jays, position by position. :) Let's start with first base, and Lyle Overbay. Sure, the guy is a doubles hitter that will remind no one of King Carlos, but he's a solid if unspectacular defender and is an upgrade offensively over what Hinske accomplished last year. I won't miss Hinske's awful miscues last year at first base and instead I await his inevitable horrible outfield play. :) Aaron Hill must show that he can improve on his fine rookie campaign and be a satisfactory defender at second base - no easy task. In 22 games at second last year, he only made 1 error, which is encouraging. Hill will put up solid numbers offensively, so I figure there's no drop in production there. Then we have Russ Adams, our shortstop. There were many times when Jamie, Adam, Steve, and I would groan at his often terrible throws to first base, which led to his 26 errors in 2005. Ouch. His offensive production is sure to improve, given his talent, and at least I don't think he'll get worse as a fielder. Speaking of terrible defense, a quick look at the career numbers of Troy Glaus shows a guy who made the same number of errors as Rusty. Glaus, in a full season at third, has never made fewer than 19 errors. Thank goodness for those power numbers that will make Special K a distant memory. :) Bengie Molina supplants Gregg Zaun at catcher, and will be solid both at and behind the plate. As for the outfielders, Vernon Wells in centre field is a Gold Glove winner and a solid power hitter who should at the very least maintain his numbers from last year. Frank Catalanotto and Reed Johnson should continue to have success platooning in left field, but the real question for this year is whether or not Alex Rios will be able to shrug off last season and become more consistent at the plate. Eric Hinske will be desperate for playing time, and might very well push Rios out of the way in right field if he gets on a hot streak early. John McDonald will fill in well again as a reserve infielder.

Now for the pitchers, beginning with the rotation: Roy Halladay will pick up where he left off last year when the hated Kevin Mench ended his season. I think Mench is going to get some serious chin music if Doc pitches against Texas this year. I'm so glad the Jays extended Halladay's contract, we'll have a Cy Young candidate for another 3 years for sure. A.J. Burnett as a Marlin was either brilliant, horrible, or injured. I hope he's not injured (though it's not looking good early on) and if he's healthy, Brad Arnsberg might just make him a 15 game winner. Ted Lilly really needs to have a good season this year if the Jays are to contend, and since he's actually healthy for the beginning of the season (unlike the last two years), he might finally win more than 12 games. Josh Towers will throw strikes and have both some really bad outings and games where he'll throw 8 innings of shutout ball. I just hope he can replicate last year's numbers, in which case Toronto will be in good shape. Gustavo Chacin will face a real test this year in his sophomore campaign, as the opposing hitters will have adjusted. But if he can locate his pitches, he should still win 13 games like last year. If our rotation can stay healthy, it's easily the best in the division. In B.J. Ryan we finally have a dependable closer, replacing Miguel Batista, who leaves Toronto with a 15-21 record, and 36 saves in 44 opportunities. After last season's second half choke, I won't miss the guy. :) The rest of the bullpen stacks up really well with dependable relievers like Jason Frasor, Justin Speier, Scott Schoenweis, and Vinnie Chulk. Scott Downs and Pete Walker should fit in nicely as long relievers/spot starters.

Well, after writing all this stuff, I'm excited for the games to begin. We've got a shot at contending! :) Given my work schedule, the only game in the first homestand I'll get to see is the Saturday, April 8th game against Tampa Bay. Oh well, I've got the Lord of the Rings on the 1st to keep me distracted. :)